Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAU · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
PAU are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Nancy are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and PAU hold an 8.1-point power-rating edge (50.3 v 42.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the Ligue 2, while PAU holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
PAU
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
12.3%
PAU has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80