Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAU · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: PAU 1-0 Laval, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
PAU 3-2 Laval
Original prediction
PAU
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 45.6% | 42.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.0% | 29.8% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 26.4% | 27.5% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Projected Score
PAU 1–0 Laval
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
PAU
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
PAU has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PAUWWLDD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LavalWDLLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PAULaval
28.6Attack38.1
71.4Defence33.3
38.1Form23.8
48.1Power34.9
1.36xG0.72