Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAU · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: PAU 1-0 Grenoble, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
PAU 2-1 Grenoble
Original prediction
PAU
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 50.1% | 46.6% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.5% | 28.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 22.4% | 24.5% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Projected Score
PAU 1–0 Grenoble
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
PAU
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
PAU has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PAUWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GrenobleLLDDW
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
PAUGrenoble
40.7Attack29.6
66.7Defence44.4
51.9Form29.6
55.5Power36.5
1.53xG0.56