Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAU · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PAU 2-0 Dunkerque
Original prediction
PAU
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.2% | 36.6% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.0% | 28.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 30.8% | 35.2% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
PAU
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
PAU has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PAULDDLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
DunkerqueWDLLD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PAUDunkerque
22.2Attack55.6
66.7Defence44.4
27.8Form44.4
41.8Power50.2
1.08xG1.12