Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Patronato · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Patronato 0-0 Almagro, with an exact score probability of 29%.
Prediction record
Final result
Patronato 0-1 Almagro
Original prediction
Patronato
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.4% | 41.9% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 33.9% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 5.47 | 16.8% | 24.2% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Projected Score
Patronato 0–0 Almagro
Exact score probability: 29%
Predicted outcome
Patronato
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Patronato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PatronatoWDLDD
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AlmagroDLDLD
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
PatronatoAlmagro
29.5Attack26.9
62.8Defence62.8
35.9Form39.7
44.9Power45.1
0.71xG0.56