Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Patronato are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Almagro are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 44.8 against 46.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 31.9% in the Primera Nacional, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 12% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
31.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40