PatriotasvsUnion Magdalena

COMPLETED

Colombia · Primera B · 9/18/2026, 11:05:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Union Magdalena · BTTS No · Under 2.5

Projected score: Patriotas 0-0 Union Magdalena, with an exact score probability of 18%.

Final result

Patriotas 1-2 Union Magdalena

Original prediction

Union Magdalena

Outcome

Correct

Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.

Odds bucket: 3.50+

Market	Odds	Implied probability	Model probability	Difference
Home	2.02	44.8%	34.1%	-10.7 pts
Draw	3.06	29.6%	29.8%	0.2 pts
Away	3.54	25.6%	36.1%	10.5 pts

Historical EV

1X2 2.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -

Value score

10.5 pts

Projected Score

Patriotas 0–0 Union Magdalena

Exact score probability: 18%

Predicted outcome

Union Magdalena

Probability

36.1%

Model confidence

36.1%

Union Magdalena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

PatriotasWWWLW

GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5

Union MagdalenaLLWLL

GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5

PatriotasUnion Magdalena

40.6Attack45.2

60.9Defence67.9

49.3Form53.6

52.3Power56.8

0.83xG0.98