Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Envigado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Patriotas 0-0 Envigado, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Patriotas 0-2 Envigado
Original prediction
Envigado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.4% | 30.6% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.2% | 30.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 27.4% | 38.9% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Projected Score
Patriotas 0–0 Envigado
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Envigado
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Envigado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PatriotasLLDLL
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
EnvigadoWDDDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
PatriotasEnvigado
34.5Attack44.1
56.3Defence70.3
40.2Form55.0
45.8Power58.2
0.64xG1.09