Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Istiqlol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Parvoz are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Istiqlol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Istiqlol hold a 30.1-point power-rating edge (38.6 v 68.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 21.7% in the Vysshaya Liga, while Istiqlol holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Istiqlol
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
21.7%
Istiqlol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40