Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Partizani · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Partizani 1-3 Tirana
Original prediction
Partizani
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.2% | 37.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.7% | 26.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.2% | 35.7% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Partizani
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Partizani has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PartizaniWLLWL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
TiranaDDWLL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PartizaniTirana
46.7Attack53.3
33.3Defence40.0
26.7Form33.3
38.6Power41.9
1.52xG1.51