Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ansar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paro 1-2 Al Ansar
Original prediction
Al Ansar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.81 | 23.7% | 34.1% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.0% | 27.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 50.3% | 38.5% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Al Ansar
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Al Ansar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParoDWWWW
GF 24 · GA 4 · avg 4.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Al AnsarWWWDD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ParoAl Ansar
66.7Attack66.7
66.7Defence100.0
66.7Form100.0
68.0Power88.7
1.48xG1.36