Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parma 0-2 Cremonese
Original prediction
Parma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 44.3% | 40.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.3% | 28.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 26.4% | 31.5% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Parma
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Parma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParmaLLWLD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
CremoneseLLWDD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ParmaCremonese
66.7Attack66.7
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power88.7
1.55xG1.32