Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Parma are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (LDDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Catania are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Parma hold a 53.8-point power-rating edge (77.5 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.1% in the Coppa Italia, while Parma holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Parma
Probability
61.6%
Model confidence
10.1%
Parma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40