Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parma U20 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parma U20 2-1 Genoa U20
Original prediction
Parma U20
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.8% | 50.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 25.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.90 | 23.2% | 24.5% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Parma U20
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Parma U20 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Parma U20WWDLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Genoa U20DWLDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Parma U20Genoa U20
77.8Attack44.4
77.8Defence55.6
77.8Form44.4
76.6Power51.1
2.00xG1.09