Paris Saint Germain Wvs
Lyon W
COMPLETEDFrance · Feminine Division 1 · 10/17/2026, 7:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris Saint Germain W 0-4 Lyon W
Original prediction
Lyon W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.00 | 11.3% | 31.2% | 19.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.6% | 24.0% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.32 | 68.1% | 44.8% | -23.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lyon W
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Lyon W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 28 · GA 2 · avg 5.60/0.40