Paris Saint Germainvs
Monaco
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 9/4/2026, 7:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris Saint Germain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco
Original prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.8% | 42.3% | -27.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.43 | 17.4% | 24.7% | 7.3 pts |
| Away | 7.41 | 12.8% | 33.1% | 20.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Paris Saint Germain
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Paris Saint Germain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00