Paris Saint Germainvs
Lyon
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 10/26/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris Saint Germain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lyon
Original prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 72.1% | 44.5% | -27.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.73 | 16.6% | 23.0% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 8.46 | 11.3% | 32.6% | 21.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Paris Saint Germain
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Paris Saint Germain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60