Paris Saint Germainvs
Le Mans
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 10/10/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris Saint Germain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans
Original prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 85.2% | 54.9% | -30.2 pts |
| Draw | 9.82 | 9.7% | 20.8% | 11.1 pts |
| Away | 18.74 | 5.1% | 24.3% | 19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Paris Saint Germain
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Paris Saint Germain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80