Paris Saint Germainvs
Barcelona
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris Saint Germain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris Saint Germain 4-2 Barcelona
Original prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 38.7% | 38.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 21.9% | 25.0% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 39.4% | 36.5% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Paris Saint Germain
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Paris Saint Germain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 22 · GA 6 · avg 4.40/1.20