Paris FC Wvs
Arsenal W
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League Women · 9/30/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris FC W 2-2 Arsenal W
Original prediction
Arsenal W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.19 | 12.7% | 28.2% | 15.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.3% | 24.3% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 68.1% | 47.4% | -20.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal W
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Arsenal W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 17 · avg 1.40/3.40
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40