Paris FCvs
Strasbourg
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 9/19/2026, 3:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris FC 2-1 Strasbourg
Original prediction
Paris FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 50.1% | 47.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 25.2% | 25.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 24.7% | 27.7% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Paris FC
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Paris FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Paris FCDWWDL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
StrasbourgDWWLD
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Paris FCStrasbourg
50.0Attack75.0
83.3Defence33.3
66.7Form58.3
67.6Power54.7
1.83xG1.26