Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris FC 4-3 Rennes
Original prediction
Paris FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.8% | 44.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 27.3% | 25.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 29.9% | 30.0% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Paris FC
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Paris FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Paris FCLWDWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
RennesWWLLD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Paris FCRennes
44.4Attack66.7
77.8Defence44.4
61.1Form72.2
62.5Power62.4
1.57xG1.18