Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris FC · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris FC 3-0 Nice
Original prediction
Paris FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.9% | 40.4% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 28.3% | 28.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 25.8% | 31.2% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Paris FC
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Paris FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Paris FCDLLDD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NiceDDDLW
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Paris FCNice
0.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence100.0
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.40xG1.19