Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paris FC 0-0 Lyon
Original prediction
Paris FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 37.4% | 39.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.9% | 26.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 36.6% | 34.1% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Paris FC
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Paris FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Paris FCWWDLL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
LyonWDLWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Paris FCLyon
66.7Attack66.7
77.8Defence77.8
77.8Form77.8
74.7Power75.3
1.50xG1.28