Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paredes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paredes 4-0 Trofense
Original prediction
Paredes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 64.1% | 51.8% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.5% | 26.3% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 6.31 | 14.4% | 21.9% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Paredes
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Paredes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParedesWDWWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TrofenseDLDLW
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ParedesTrofense
53.3Attack22.2
60.0Defence50.0
66.7Form27.8
63.4Power36.5
1.64xG0.70