Paredesvs
Maria da Fonte
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paredes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paredes 5-1 Maria da Fonte
Original prediction
Paredes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 76.3% | 57.3% | -19.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.34 | 16.9% | 21.9% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 13.30 | 6.8% | 20.7% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Paredes
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
Paredes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40