Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paredes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paredes 1-0 Famalicao
Original prediction
Paredes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.79 | 13.6% | 38.6% | 25.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.44 | 20.8% | 24.7% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.40 | 65.7% | 36.7% | -29.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 5.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
25.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Paredes
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Paredes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParedesDWWWW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FamalicaoLWDDD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ParedesFamalicao
100.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
89.7Power50.0
2.21xG1.22