Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paredes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Paredes 0-0 Fafe, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Paredes 2-1 Fafe
Original prediction
Paredes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 43.8% | 39.6% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.1% | 32.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.0% | 28.2% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Projected Score
Paredes 0–0 Fafe
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Paredes
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Paredes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParedesWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FafeWDWDW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ParedesFafe
40.5Attack39.3
73.8Defence64.3
46.4Form53.6
54.4Power54.0
0.93xG0.57