Parceiro Naganovs
Tochigi SC
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/13/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tochigi SC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parceiro Nagano 1-1 Tochigi SC
Original prediction
Tochigi SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.42 | 26.3% | 35.4% | 9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.6% | 27.1% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 44.0% | 37.5% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Tochigi SC
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Tochigi SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00