Parceiro Naganovs
Matsumoto Yamaga
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/18/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parceiro Nagano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Parceiro Nagano 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Parceiro Nagano 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga
Original prediction
Parceiro Nagano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.2% | 42.2% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 41.2% | 29.1% | -12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Projected Score
Parceiro Nagano 0–0 Matsumoto Yamaga
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Parceiro Nagano
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Parceiro Nagano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60