Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paradiso · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 4-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paradiso 1-0 Lugano II
Original prediction
Paradiso
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 60.8% | 58.7% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 20.8% | 21.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.84 | 18.5% | 19.8% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.3–09%
- 3.4–18%
Predicted outcome
Paradiso
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Paradiso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParadisoWLWWW
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Lugano IILLWLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ParadisoLugano II
70.4Attack55.6
66.7Defence22.2
59.3Form33.3
64.4Power39.0
3.64xG1.01