Paradisovs
Bellinzona
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · 1. Liga Promotion · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paradiso · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paradiso 4-0 Bellinzona
Original prediction
Paradiso
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 44.9% | 54.3% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 25.6% | 22.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.5% | 22.8% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Paradiso
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Paradiso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00