Papua New Guineavs
Solomon Islands
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Solomon Islands · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Papua New Guinea 1-1 Solomon Islands
Original prediction
Solomon Islands
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 32.9% | 30.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.7% | 27.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 38.4% | 42.9% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Solomon Islands
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Solomon Islands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40