Papua New Guineavs
New Caledonia
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Caledonia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Papua New Guinea 1-2 New Caledonia
Original prediction
New Caledonia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.5% | 33.8% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.9% | 27.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.10 | 29.6% | 38.4% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
New Caledonia
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
New Caledonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80