Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plzen · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
PAOK are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Plzen are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Plzen hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (54.5 v 59.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Plzen holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Plzen
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Plzen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00