Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAOK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PAOK 1-3 Kalamata
Original prediction
PAOK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 77.9% | 64.8% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.52 | 14.3% | 19.8% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 11.96 | 7.8% | 15.4% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
PAOK
Probability
64.8%
Model confidence
64.8%
PAOK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PAOKWWWLD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KalamataLDWDD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
PAOKKalamata
80.0Attack40.0
66.7Defence46.7
80.0Form26.7
74.7Power39.6
2.24xG0.86