PAOKvs
Iraklis 1908
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 10/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAOK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PAOK 2-1 Iraklis 1908
Original prediction
PAOK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 73.2% | 56.3% | -16.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.39 | 17.4% | 23.2% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 9.87 | 9.5% | 20.5% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
PAOK
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
PAOK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PAOKLWWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Iraklis 1908WDDWD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
PAOKIraklis 1908
72.2Attack33.3
55.6Defence66.7
66.7Form50.0
64.2Power51.0
1.62xG0.93