PAOKvs
Aris Thessalonikis
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 9/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAOK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis
Original prediction
PAOK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 59.7% | 52.5% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.4% | 24.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.49 | 17.0% | 23.6% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
PAOK
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
PAOK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PAOKLDWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Aris ThessalonikisDLWWW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PAOKAris Thessalonikis
77.8Attack55.6
55.6Defence11.1
66.7Form66.7
65.1Power47.7
2.14xG1.23