Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Panevėžys · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Panevėžys are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Tukums are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Panevėžys hold a 27.2-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 36.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Panevėžys holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Panevėžys
Probability
64.6%
Model confidence
13.4%
Panevėžys has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20