Panevėžysvs
Kauno Žalgiris
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 9/13/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kauno Žalgiris · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Panevėžys 0-2 Kauno Žalgiris, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Panevėžys 0-1 Kauno Žalgiris
Original prediction
Kauno Žalgiris
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.82 | 18.5% | 11.7% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.1% | 19.5% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 57.4% | 68.8% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Projected Score
Panevėžys 0–2 Kauno Žalgiris
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Kauno Žalgiris
Probability
68.8%
Model confidence
68.8%
Kauno Žalgiris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20