Panevėžysvs
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 8/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Panevėžys 2-0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Original prediction
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.01 | 17.9% | 17.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 20.9% | 22.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.2% | 59.9% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 13 · GA 14 · avg 2.60/2.80