UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League
Thursday, 23 July 2026Last updated 15:02
Panevėžys

Panevėžys

Home
L
11
Full time
FK Tobol Kostanay

FK Tobol Kostanay

Away
W
Aukštaitija Stadium
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Panevėžys(38%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Panevėžys
38%
Draw
26%
FK Tobol Kostanay
36%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Panevėžys
9
FK Tobol Kostanay
94
Defence
Panevėžys
6
FK Tobol Kostanay
66
Momentum
Panevėžys
0
FK Tobol Kostanay
100
Danger (xG)
Panevėžys
0.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.70
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Panevėžys)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (FK Tobol Kostanay)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Panevėžys)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (FK Tobol Kostanay)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
PanevėžysPanevėžys
LLL
FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay
WWD

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Panevėžys38%
Draw26%
FK Tobol Kostanay36%

Panevėžys leads with 38% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Panevėžys head into this in UEFA Europa Conference League fixture at Aukštaitija Stadium in mixed form (L), while FK Tobol Kostanay arrive in mixed form (W). Panevėžys have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for FK Tobol Kostanay over 1 games.

Tactically, FK Tobol Kostanay hold the edge. Their elite attack (94/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Panevėžys defence (6/100), while Panevėžys's attack faces a solid FK Tobol Kostanay backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Panevėžys have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. FK Tobol Kostanay have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Panevėžys to win with 38% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Panevėžys 3802%, Draw 2620%, FK Tobol Kostanay 3578%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Panevėžys

Panevėžys

L
@ Kauno Žalgiris
11 Jul 2026
03
L
vs Suduva Marijampole
29 Jun 2026
12
L
@ Minija
23 Jun 2026
12
FK Tobol Kostanay

FK Tobol Kostanay

W
vs Okzhetpes
12 Jul 2026
31
W
vs Altay
28 Jun 2026
31
D
@ Kaisar
13 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

GoalVio's model predicts Panevėžys to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more