Panathinaikosvs
PAOK
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 9/6/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Panathinaikos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Panathinaikos 3-1 PAOK
Original prediction
Panathinaikos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 43.9% | 38.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.5% | 28.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.39 | 27.7% | 33.6% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Panathinaikos
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Panathinaikos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00