Panathinaikosvs
Asteras Tripolis
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 10/18/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Panathinaikos · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Panathinaikos 5-1 Asteras Tripolis
Original prediction
Panathinaikos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 77.4% | 69.0% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.01 | 15.5% | 18.8% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 13.31 | 7.0% | 12.2% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Panathinaikos
Probability
69.0%
Model confidence
69.0%
Panathinaikos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00