Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Palmeiras are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Vitoria are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 23.5-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 44.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.5% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 69% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
68.5%
Model confidence
68.5%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00