Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Palmeiras are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Santos are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold an 11.9-point power-rating edge (78.2 v 66.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.0% in the Copa Do Brasil, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
15.0%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00