Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Palmeiras 1-0 Santos, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Palmeiras 3-0 Santos
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 62.0% | 50.4% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 23.9% | 27.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 6.66 | 14.1% | 22.5% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.6 pts
Projected Score
Palmeiras 1–0 Santos
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalmeirasWWLDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SantosDDWWL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PalmeirasSantos
100.0Attack25.0
66.7Defence100.0
75.0Form66.7
78.2Power66.3
1.34xG0.77