Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Palmeiras are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Mirassol are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 10 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 22.5-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.6% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
66.6%
Model confidence
66.6%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00