Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Palmeiras are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 2.50 scored and 2.50 conceded, while Cuiaba are 0W-0D-1L in their last 1 (L), averaging 3.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 3 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold an 18.1-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 49.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.7% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 2.50/2.50
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/4.00