Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Palmeiras are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 16.4-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 51.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.9% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80