Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Palmeiras are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Botafogo are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 17.5-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 50.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.2% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20