GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8/15/2024, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Palestino are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Independiente Medellin are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Palestino hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (39.6 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

40.7%

Model confidence

40.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PalestinoWDLWL

GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Independiente MedellinLWDDD

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
PalestinoIndependiente Medellin
14.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence50.0
28.6Form16.7
39.6Power36.5
0.90xG0.83
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